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Tick Volume

December 6, 2009 // Posted in Uncategorized (Tags: , , , ) |  Comments Off

The popularity of quote machines and fast trading requires a measurement of volume that can be used immediately to make decisions. Because total volume is not available on a timely basis to day traders, tick volume has become a substitute. Tick volume is the number of changes in price, regardless of volume, that occur during any time interval. Tick volume relates directly to actual volume because, as markets become more active. prices change back and forth more often. If only two trades occur in a 5-minute period, then the market is not liquid, regardless of the size of the orders that changed hands. From an analytic view, tick volume gives a reasonable approximation of true volume and can be used as a substitute. From a practical view, it is the only choice.

Identifying Direction from Consolidation Patterns

November 20, 2009 // Posted in Uncategorized (Tags: , , , , , ) |  Comments Off

it is said that markets move sideways about 80% of the time, which means that directional breakouts do not occur often, or that most breakouts are false and fail to identify a new market direction. Classic accumulation and distribution formations, which occur at longterm lows and highs, attempt to find evolving changes in market sentiment. Because these formations occur only at extremes, and may extend for a long time, they represent the most obvious consolidation of price movement. Even a rounded, or saucer, bottom may have a number of false starts; it may seem to rum up in a uniform pattern, then fall back and begin another slow move up. In the long run the pattern looks as if it is a somewhat irregular but extended rounded bottom; however, using this pattern to enter a trade in a timely fashion can be disappointing and has resulted in the safe-but conservative technique of averaging in. Most other consolidation formations are best viewed in the same way as a simply horizontal sideways pattern,
bounded above by a resistance line and below by a support line. If this pattern occurs at reasonably low prices, we can eventually expect a breakout upward when the fundamentals change. Occasionally prices seem to become less volatile within the sideways pattern, and chartists take this opportunity to redefine the support and resistance levels so that they are narrower. Breakouts based on these more sensitive lines tend to be less reliable because they represent a temporary quiet period inside the normal level of market noise.