it is said that markets move sideways about 80% of the time, which means that directional breakouts do not occur often, or that most breakouts are false and fail to identify a new market direction. Classic accumulation and distribution formations, which occur at longterm lows and highs, attempt to find evolving changes in market sentiment. Because these formations occur only at extremes, and may extend for a long time, they represent the most obvious consolidation of price movement. Even a rounded, or saucer, bottom may have a number of false starts; it may seem to rum up in a uniform pattern, then fall back and begin another slow move up. In the long run the pattern looks as if it is a somewhat irregular but extended rounded bottom; however, using this pattern to enter a trade in a timely fashion can be disappointing and has resulted in the safe-but conservative technique of averaging in. Most other consolidation formations are best viewed in the same way as a simply horizontal sideways pattern,
bounded above by a resistance line and below by a support line. If this pattern occurs at reasonably low prices, we can eventually expect a breakout upward when the fundamentals change. Occasionally prices seem to become less volatile within the sideways pattern, and chartists take this opportunity to redefine the support and resistance levels so that they are narrower. Breakouts based on these more sensitive lines tend to be less reliable because they represent a temporary quiet period inside the normal level of market noise.
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Identifying Direction from Consolidation Patterns
November 20, 2009 // Posted in Uncategorized (Tags: business, cash, cash flow, Consolidation Patterns, market, money) | Comments Off
BASIC TRADING RULES
November 15, 2009 // Posted in trading rules (Tags: Financial market, market, trade, trading rules) | Comments Off
The simplest formations to recognize are the most commonly used and most important: horizontal support and resistance lines, bullish and bearish support and resistance lines, and channels. Proper use of these basic lines is essential for identifying the overall direction of the market and how it gets there. An understanding of these patterns will be helpful to computer-oriented analysts, many of whose techniques have been modeled after chart formation. More complex formations are likely to enhance good performance but cannot compensate for poor trend identification.
Once the support and resistance lines have been drawn, a price penetration of those lines creates the basic trend signal. The bullish support line defines the upward trend, and the bearish resistance line denotes the downward one. For long-term charts and major trends this is often sufficient, but frequent small penetrations of both long- and shortterm trendlines can be avoided by placing a band around both lines. A short signal occurs when both the trendline and the band have been penetrated. Because of the basic charting rule—-~’Once broken, a resistance level becomes a support level and a support level becomes a resistance level”-the original trendline (or a trendline plus and minus a band) can be used as a stop-loss. If prices penetrate the stop-loss point, then return to the original formation., there has been a false breakout and the original trendlines are still valid.